Measure What Matters: Risk Budgets and Scenario Tests
Study the 1970s inflation shock, the 2000–2002 tech unwind, the 2008 liquidity crisis, and 2022’s bond-equity drawdown. Ask how your mix would have behaved. Historical regimes are imperfect teachers, but their lessons are reliably humbling.
Measure What Matters: Risk Budgets and Scenario Tests
Monte Carlo simulations map ranges of outcomes rather than predictions. Feed them realistic return, volatility, and correlation inputs, and stress test tails. Use them to plan behavior, not chase certainty. Share your inputs and compare notes with readers.